Sports - Football
Expert Soccer Tips - EPL Round 36
Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.
FULHAM V EVERTON
Betting Strategy
LAY: Fulham (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $1.90)
Everton have only won one of the seven meetings since Fulham returned to the Premier League. It was the first meeting back in 2020/21 and since then there has been three losses and three draws. The past five were 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 3-1 and 0-0, so Everton have struggled, and the past three meetings at Craven Cottage were 0-0, 0-0 and 3-2. Five of the past six games were 0-0 at half time so don't be lumping on goals here. This season at home, Fulham had four straight draws mid season, and the past six has seen three wins and three losses, so it can't get more balanced than that. If we look at Everton's past five away, there is just one win, yet if we go back seven games, there are three wins. The past five away scores were 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, and 1-1. That one win was against Nottingham Forest. They have won or drawn 10/15 away games, with five losses. They only lost 1-0 away to Chelsea and Liverpool either side of that win at Forest so I think they can get a draw or even win this. I am going to lay Fulham at the odds on price.
IPSWICH V BRENTFORD
Betting Strategy
BACK: Brentford (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $1.65)
I am not sure how much Ipswich have left in the tank. They usually go behind and from there it's a struggle. They have conceded first in 5/7 home matches against middle-third teams while Brentford have scored first in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. The meeting earlier this season was a cracker. It was 2-2 at half time and ended 3-4, in a heartbreaking loss for Ipswich. They have lost 10/11 at home, with the one win against Chelsea, 2-0. Brentford have won six of their past eight away games, after winning none of their first nine away from home. A remarkable turnaround. I can't see anything other than another win, so I will back them to win away again.
SOUTHAMPTON V MANCHESTER CITY
Betting Strategy
BACK: Under 2.5 goals (Under/Over 2.5 goals) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.50)
I would have rated Manchester City about $1.05 in this game, as Southampton have a near zero chance of winning (6.66% according to Betfair), so it was a shock to see them $1.23. That looks like a nice return on investment for 90 minutes work, but maybe we can get a bit better value in the goals markets. It's a must win for Manchester City, to keep their Champions League hopes on track. City have won five of the past seven, with two draws. Both scored in just four games, and only four went Over 2.5 goals. Southampton have lost 11/12 games with one draw against Crystal Palace, so their home form is tragic. City away, have won just 4/13 so that explains the $1.23 price. No way can we take that. Their past four away ended 2-0, 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0, so their away games don't see many goals. The Over 2.5 is $1.35 here, so I am going to go for great value and back the Under 2.5 goals.
WOLVES V BRIGHTON
Betting Strategy
BACK: Draw (Match odds) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.60)
I would like to be on goals here if we can get a decent price. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/11 Wolves home matches against middle-third teams and in 12/14 Brighton away matches against middle-third teams. Also, Brighton have scored first in 10/15 away matches. In the Head to Head, Wolves have just two wins in 11 meetings, and none in the last six. The previous two were draws, and four losses before them. Wolves lost the past three at home to Brighton, 1-4, 2-3 and 0-3, so Brighton love coming here. What makes this tricky, is Wolves have won their past three home games, against Leicester (3-0), Spurs, (4-2) and West Ham (1-0), and Brighton have just one win in five games away from home, with three losses. I am going with the draw in this one, as I can see both teams settling for a point, as the season grinds to a halt. The Over 2.5 goals is $1.75 and should lan d if you fancy it.
BOURNEMOUTH V ASTON VILLA
Betting Strategy
BACK: Aston Villa (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $2.80)
Aston Villa have lost 6/8 away matches against top-half teams, which has really hurt their prospects of Champions League football. Another loss here would kill them off. Bournemouth have won the first half in 6/9 home matches against top-half teams and they have scored first in 7/9 such matches. The past four Head to Head has seen two draws and two Villa wins. Three of those four games however, were away. The only three Bournemouth home games we have since they returned to the Premier League, were 2-2, 2-0 and 2-1, so they are unbeaten. But one of those wins was in season 19/20, and the other was 22/23. The past six home games have been a disaster for Bournemouth, with four losses, then finally a win against Fulham, and a draw against Manchester United in the most recent match. Villa away are going well, with three wins, before the last match, which they lost 1-2 to Manchester City. I like Villa at a good price here to kick on and stay in the hunt for a top five place.
NEWCASTLE V CHELSEA
Betting Strategy
BACK: Newcastle (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $2.20)
The biggest match of the weekend, with both sides level on 63 points. Newcastle have scored 66 goals and conceded 45, and Chelsea have scored 62 goals and conceded 41, so there is nothing in it. Odd to see that Spurs have scored 63 goals, and yet are in 16th place. We just have to back Newcastle here, as the stats give us no real options. Newcastle have won 8/10 home matches while Chelsea have had L/L double results in 7/11 away matches against top-six teams. Chelsea have lost the first half in 8/11 away matches against top-six teams. The Head to Head however, has Chelsea winning 7/11 in total, and 2/5 in Newcastle. The past five results in Newcastle for Chelsea were 1-4, 0-1, 3-0, 2-0, 0-1. So in four of the five, just one team scored. With Newcastle winning 8/10 at home and the past five straight, and Chelsea with one win away in nine games, withy five losses, there is only one team we can back here. You should also note, all 10 home games for Newcastle went Over 2.5 goals, and five went over 3.5 goals. The past four games against Chelsea were 1-1 at half time and the three before that were 0-0 at half time. With the Over 2.5 goals at just $1.60, I am going with a home win.
MANCHESTER UNITED V WEST HAM
Betting Strategy
BACK: Draw (Match Odds) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.80)
Manchester United are so hot and cold this season, it makes this a tough game to analyse. They had won five in a row against West Ham, and then lost three of the most recent four. Just four of 11 meetings went Over 2.5 goals, and in just four games did both teams score. The big issue is, Manchester United have just one win in their past six at home, and that was a desperate 3-2 against relegated Ipswich. West Ham are in poor form away, with three straight losses. They lost to Brighton, Liverpool and Wolves. They have just four wins in 17 away games, so that makes them hard to back. I will keep it small and back a draw here, as I can't be confident in either side.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V LEICESTER
Betting Strategy
BACK: No (Both Teams to Score) for 2 units (Rated at $1.80)
Forest could jump to fourth place with a win here, and they simply can't blow this chance. They have drawn the first half in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams and there have been Under 2.5 goals in 6/8 Nottingham Forest such matches. But Leicester have conceded first in 9/10 away matches, so they should get the first goal and kick on from there. Forest had won 4/5 home games and were flying, before stuttering in their past two. They lost 0-1 to Everton and 0-2 to Brentford, so they need to get back to scoring goals. Leicester have two away wins in 17 games, so I can't see them adding to that now. They have not scored in 5/6 away games now, so I am backing NO in the Both Teams to Score market for this game.
TOTTENHAM V CRYSTAL PALACE
Betting Strategy
Back: Over 2.5 goals (Over/Under 2.5 goals) for 4 units (Rated at $1.60)
Very hard to back Spurs here as they recover from their Europa League endeavours. With nothing at all top play for in the Premier League, there could be a raft of changes here, and the market expects as much, with Crystal Palace favourites at $2.60 with Spurs at $2.90. Spurs may be in early trouble (as usual) because Palace have scored first in 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 11/13 Spurs home matches against middle-third teams and Over 3.5 goals in 8/15 Spurs home matches. The Head to Head shows Spurs winning five of the past six, but not the most recent. They lost that 1-0. They have won the past five home games against Crystal Palace, with an aggregate of 15-2. This season, Spurs have won just two of 12 games at home, and Crystal Palace had four 2-0 away wins in a row, but in their past four away, the results were 2-2, 0-5, 2-5, and 1-1, so they are leaking goals for fun recently. The safest bet by far here, is just get on the Over 2.5 goals, as no matter which side wins, we should be seeing at least three goals here.
LIVERPOOL V ARSENAL
Betting Strategy
LAY: Liverpool (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated $2.20)
This was the potential title decider, yet now it is meaningless. The league title is won for Liverpool, and the Champions league place secure for Arsenal. How ironic for the Gunners to win now, and have it mean nothing. It may be tight. There have been Under 2.5 goals in 8/10 Arsenal away matches against top-six teams. Liverpool have failed to win any of the past five meetings with Arsenal, with three draws and two losses. They did win four of the five before that though. The scores in the past five were 2-2, 1-3, 1-1, 2-2 and 2-3. Liverpool are unbeaten in the five Anfield games in that sample. The past two were 1-1 and 2-2, and before that they were 4-0, 3-1 and 3-1. Arsenal are unbeaten in 12 away games, with six draws and six wins. Liverpool have won 14/17, with one loss (Nottingham Forest), and a 2-2 draw against Manchester United. With the title wrapped up, I can see this being a draw, but I don't see Arsenal losing that proud away record, so I am going to lay Liverpool and keep the draw onside.
EPL TIPS
The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.
The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.
To ensure you capitalise on the 2023/24 EPL season, be sure to follow Betfair's latest updated expert EPL tips across the entire season. Betfair's analysts provide head-to-head selections, total goals picks, goal scorer tips, advice on which individual players we think will play well, game previews, analysis plus much more!
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2023/24: Manchester City
2022/23: Manchester City
2021/22 : Manchester City
2020/21: Manchester City
2019/20: Liverpool
2018/19: Manchester City
2017/18: Manchester City
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