Sports - Football
Expert Soccer Tips - EPL Round 32
Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action.
Betting strategies and previews available now.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) No for 2 units @ $2.30
This has not been an easy fixture for Manchester City. In the past six meetings, there have been three draws. The scores, with the most recent first were 2-2, 4-2, 2-2, 1-0, 4-2 and 0-0. So four of the past five have had four or more goals. Crystal Palace away form has been superb. They are unbeaten in 10 away now, winning six of the past eight, with two draws. The last away game, was the 1-1 with Southampton. The past three at home for City, were a 2-0 win over Leicester, a 2-2 draw with Brighton and the 0-2 loss to Liverpool. City home games went Over 2.5 in 11/15 games, but it is just 5/14 away for Palace. All 15 City games at home had a first half goal, and 13/15 Palace away games had a second half goal. Looking at Both Teams to Score, Palace had kept five clean sheets on the road before the 1-1 draw with Southampton which was a very late goal. Manchester City games have seen just one side score in three of their past four home games. So I am getting on No here in the Both Teams to Score market.
Brighton v Leicester
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $2.26
Leicester have no further to fall this season. They are at rock bottom. They have lost 9/10 away matches, and lost by two or more goals in 7/10 away matches. They are relegated and couldn't score a goal if their opponent played with no goalkeeper. They have lost their past four away without scoring, and have scored in one game in their past 11 Premier League games, losing 15/16 in the process. With Brighton just $1.30 to win, the only value is in the Both Teams to Score market. This now becomes tricky. With Leicester not scoring in 15/16 games, a look at the Head to Head shows both scoring in the past six meetings. The scores were 2-2, 2-2, 5-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2. What a dilemma. I am going to go right out onto the edge of the limb, and say this is the game they hit the net. The price is too good to refuse and they have nothing to lose now, they are gone.
Nottingham Forest v Everton
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Under 2.5 goals for 2 units @ $1.70
As well as Everton have been playing, the numbers say they lose this one. Forest have scored first in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Everton have lost 8/9 away matches against top-six teams. Also, Everton have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 away matches against top-six teams. The Head to Head however, shows a different story. Forest won the last meeting 2-0, but before that, we have 0-2, 0-1, 2-2 and 1-1 results. This season at home, Forest have won nine of their past 12, losing once (1-3 to Newcastle) and in their past two, beat Manchester City 1-0, and Manchester United 1-0. Everton away have won just 2/11, and before they lost their last away game to Liverpool 0-1, had 1-1 away draws at Wolves and Brentford. Before that they beat Crystal Palace and Brighton away, so they have lost just one of the past five. As seven of the past eight away games stayed Under 2.5 goals, and the past three Forest home games ended 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0, I am sticking with the Under 2.5 goals for this one.
Southampton v Aston Villa
Betting Strategy
Back (Match odds) Aston Villa for 5 units @ $1.61
If Southampton were a dog, they would have been taken to the vet and humanely euthanised weeks ago, months ago in fact. They lost yet another manager after the latest defeat, (their third this season) and suffered a record relegation, (no team ever relegated with seven games to go), they now have to face their fans and a team with very high ambitions of a top four place. A win here can get Villa to fourth, although to keep it for now, Manchester City, Newcastle and Chelsea all have to lose this weekend. But they are in the mix. In the Head to Head, the past four ended 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 4-0 and before that it was 0-1 and 1-0, so in the past six meetings, only one side has scored. In five of them it was Villa. Saints have scored in four of their past five at home, and Villa have scored in five of their past six away, so we should see goals. Saints managed a late draw against Crystal Palace in their last home game, and that ended a nine game losing run. We can take $1.61 on Villa winning, or $1.68 on Over 2.5 goals, or $1.75 on Both Teams to Score (yes). I am playing safe and just going with the Villa win.
Arsenal v Brentford
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Arsenal for 3 units @ $1.65
On paper, this game also looks straight forward. Arsenal have won 7/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Brentford have lost 8/9 away matches against top-six teams. The Head to Head shows Arsenal have won five of the past six, with one draw. At home, Arsenal have won 5/7 with one draw and one loss. They have beaten Fulham (2-1) and Chelsea (1-0) in their past two home games, and I am backing them to win three straight London Derbies. They can't win the league, but they can just keep winning games to put some pressure on Liverpool, but lock up second place and a Champions League spot.
Chelsea v Ipswich
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) No for 2 units @ $2.00
Chelsea should romp this game, as Ipswich played their grand final last week against Wolves and got turned over. Chelsea have won 8/11 home matches while Ipswich have lost 7/12 away matches. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/12 Ipswich away matches. In a stunning upset, Ipswich did beat Chelsea 2-0 earlier in the season, but Chelsea have gone up a dozen gears since that game. They have won five straight at home, and I can't see any other outcome here. There is no real value at $1.33 and the Over 2.5 is $1.55. I am going to bank on Chelsea keeping a clean sheet, and backing No in the Both Teams to Score market.
Liverpool v West Ham
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $2.04
The Liverpool juggernaught will roll on here and should win comfortably. They have won 15/16 home matches against bottom-six teams while West Ham have lost by two or more goals in 6/11 trips to top-six teams. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/10 West Ham away matches against top-six teams. Liverpool have won 9/11 in the Head to Head with one loss and one draw. That draw was last season in London. This season in London, the Reds won 5-0. Liverpool have won 12/15 home games, with a very early season loss to Nottingham Forest and draws with Fulham and Manchester United (both games were 2-2). West Ham have won just one of their past six away games, but they did beat Arsenal in that win, 1-0. West Ham have scored in three of the past four against Liverpool and I am getting on them to do the same here. They may not win, but they should find the net.
Wolves v Tottenham
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Wolves for 2 units @ $2.34
A tricky game for Spurs especially after the Europa League game. They have won 8/10 away matches against bottom-six teams, but as they are almost a bottom six side themselves right now (seventh from bottom), those stats don't mean much now. But, in the Head to Head, Wolves have won three of the past four and the most recent meeting was 2-2, earlier this season. Spurs have just two away wins, against Brentford and Ipswich, in their past seven away. I think the Thursday night Europa League game will prove a problem for a side that is about to lose their manager, and finish in their lowest place ever in the Premier League. The fact Wolves are $2.34 favourites speaks volumes. I was going to lay Spurs at $3.30, but the better value may just be to back Wolves here, as Spurs rarely draw. They have one draw in 15 away games, so they either win or lose this, and on current form, they won't be winning.
Newcastle v Manchester United
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Newcastle for 2 units @ $1.72
Game of the weekend this one. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 10/13 Newcastle home matches against middle-third teams and in 12/18 Man Utd away matches against top-six teams. The issue with backing the goals here, is the past meetings have ended 2-0, 2-3, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0 and 1-1. So just one of six went over. Newcastle are in the better form, winning five of their past seven at home, and Manchester United have won just two of their past seven away from Old Trafford. Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 4-3 two home games back, and Manchester United lost 0-1 to them away last week, so that form says Newcastle should win. The Magpies are just flying at the moment, (no pun intended), so I am backing them to get a solid win here.
Bournemouth v Fulham
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 4 units @ $1.80
This looks tough for Fulham. They have lost 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams, and have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams. They are however, three points above Bournemouth on the ladder. Head to Head shows there is little in it, with a win, loss and draw for both sides in the past three. Our safest bet here by far is the Over 2.5 goals, as all five recent meetings between them went over. Scores were 2-2, 1-3, 3-0, 2-1 and 2-2. Fulham away games went Over 2.5 goals seven times in their past eight, and five of them were 2-1 or 1-2. The past two home games for Bournemouth both ended 1-2, so there may be some real value backing 2-1 and 1-2 in the Correct Score market. For this game though, I am very happy to take $1.80 on there being three goals or more, especially with that set of Fulham away results.
EPL TIPS
The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.
The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.
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EPL Title:
2023/24: Manchester City
2022/23: Manchester City
2021/22 : Manchester City
2020/21: Manchester City
2019/20: Liverpool
2018/19: Manchester City
2017/18: Manchester City
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