Racing
Special Feature: Shane Dye questions the 2yo crop but lauds racing's current champions
This season’s two-year-old crop is the worst he’s seen, unbeaten mare Autumn Glow could win the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Ka Ying Rising might be the greatest sprinter ever, and eight-year-old Romantic Warrior is getting better.
At least this is the opinion of Hall of Fame jockey Shane Dye who didn't hold back during an interview with Racing And Sports this week.
Always forthright and often controversial, Dye went straight onto the front foot when asked to rate this season's two-year-olds.
But he was only just warming up and the former champion jockey made comment on Autumn's Glow emerging champion qualities and why he considers Hong Kong superstars Ka Ying Rising and Romantic Warrior among the best horses he has ever seen.
WHO WINS THE GOLDEN SLIPPER?
The champion jockey won the world's richest two-year-old race four years in succession with Courtza (1989), Canny Lad (1990), Tierce (1991) and Burst (1992).
Since retiring from the saddle, Dye has become a renowned form student but concedes he can't get a read on this season's juvenile crop.
"I arrived in Australia in 1985 and I have always loved the 2yo racing here,'' Dye said.
"Usually, I can pick the Slipper winner weeks or months before the race but not this year.
"This is the worst bunch of two-year-olds I've seen in my life. There is not a good one among them.
"Right now, I have no idea which horse I would want to ride in the Slipper.''
Dye said he might be in a better position to analyse the two-year-olds after the running of the Group 2 $300,000 Todman Stakes (1200m) and Group 2 $300,000 Reisling Stakes (1200m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
The colts and geldings seems to have the edge over the fillies this season so the Todman Stakes clash between the likes of Silver Slipper winner Stretan Ruler, Hidrix, Paradoxium, Incognito, Tornado Valley and others is expected to have a huge bearing on betting for the $5 million Golden Slipper in two weeks.
But the fillies division, the Reisling Stakes, features the likes of Agrarian Girl, Chayan, Miss Chanel, Naadra and Rachini, is also a crucial Golden Slipper lead-up race.
"Stretan Ruler was good in the Silver Slipper, he has obviously improved from Melbourne,'' Dye said.
"But we haven't seen a two-year-old put back-to-back wins together so it will be interesting to see what he can do in the Todman.''
Dye revealed he was taken by the debut effort of Central Europe when a fast-finishing and unlucky second to Campione D'Italia in the Skyline Stakes last week.
"I thought Central Europe should have won, for sure,'' Dye said.
"He's a nice horse but he has got to go to the Pago Pago Stakes to qualify.
"So, this means he could have three runs in four weeks and will the edge be off him going into a Golden Slipper?''
Dye felt early Golden Slipper favourite Warwoven "ran alright" when fourth in the Skyline Stakes, beaten a half length.
"Warwoven hadn't raced for a couple of months, he didn't have a trial going into it, he didn't jump well, he had to do a bit of work early, he was on the inside (in the straight) which wasn't the place to be, but he battled on,'' Dye said.
"I think there is improvement from the run as things went against him.
"But the Slipper picture keeps changing every week because there are no good ones among them.
"If you are asking me right now to find one horse for the Golden Slipper, I can't find one.''
AUTUMN GLOW – THE REAL DEAL
"She is incredible, she is a superstar, absolutely the real deal,'' Dye said.
"Her first-up win in the Apollo Stakes was amazing and lengths better than any of her previous wins.
"She was never going to repeat that effort last start, horses can't do that, but she still won and will just keep winning.''
Dye said Autumn Glow is the nation's standout racehorse but she will have some serious challengers in the next 12 months.
"Australia is going through a run of very good horses at the moment and that is something we have lacked for years,'' he said.
"I think there are a lot of top three-year-olds this season like Tentyris who could be the best sprinter we have seen since Black Caviar.
"He will win the Newmarket Handicap on Saturday, the 57kg won't matter to him.
"Observer is another outstanding three-year-old, so is Autumn Boy and Tempted. There is some real talent coming through among our younger horses.
"But they are going to need to keep improving if they are going to beat Autumn Glow – she is something else again.''
The Chris Waller-trained Autumn Glow will have her next start in the Group 1 $1 million George Ryder Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill Gardens on March 21 but where she goes after that is still up in the air.
Waller and owner John Messara are considering three Group 1 options at Royal Randwick during The Championships – the $4 million Doncaster Mile (1600m) on April 4 then either the $5 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) or the $1 million Queen Of The Turf Stakes (1600m) on April 11.
"If I had Autumn Glow she would be lining up in the Queen Elizabeth, she will run the 2000m easily,'' Dye said.
"I always listen to good jockeys after races and James McDonald said after he won on Autumn Glow last Saturday she should go to the Queen Elizabeth and will just win.
"So, he knows in the back of his mind that she will relax and get 2000m.''
Dye also weighed in on the growing debate about whether Autumn Glow is sharp enough to be competitive over 1200m in the $20 million The Everest in October.
"Autumn Glow could win an Everest fresh, she is that good – and she is getting better,'' Dye said.
"If she was specifically set for an Everest, she would run very well but if Ka Ying Rising is in the race, she wouldn't beat him.
"If Ka Ying Rising turns up like he did last year when I rated him four lengths below his best in The Everest, Autumn Glow might be a chance.
"But if we get the Ka Ying Rising in Sydney this spring that we see in Hong Kong, they have no hope of beating him.''
THE HONG KONG CHAMPIONS – HOW GOOD ARE THEY?
The Hong Kong champions are sweeping all before them and arguably are the best horses in world racing.
Romantic Warrior scored his 13th Group 1 win in the Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup last Sunday and he is completely dominant over a middle distance.
"Although Romantic Warrior is an eight-year-old, he is so good and seems to be getting better,'' he said.
"During his career, Romantic Warrior has been all over the world and won everywhere.
"He's won in Japan, won in the Middle East, he came to Australia when he wasn't right and won a Cox Plate, and he should have won on the dirt (Saudi Cup). He's a champion in every sense of the word.
"If Romantic Warrior was coming for the Queen Elizabeth Stakes I know which one James (McDonald) would be riding and it wouldn't be Autumn Glow – I would bet my life on it.''
"I'll tell you why Ka Ying Rising is a superstar and one of the greatest to ever race,'' Dye said
"Winx was a great champion but she had to be ridden a certain way and that was that quietly early to save energy before sprinting home.
"But Ka Ying Rising burns energy twice in his races. At the start Zac (Purton, jockey) uses him to get up on the speed then in the straight this horse quickens like no other horse can.''
Ka Ying Rising has two more scheduled starts in Hong Kong this season then will be set to defend his The Everest title in October. The David Hayes-trained champion is so good, he is already a $1.60 favourite for the world's richest turf race ahead of Tentyris at $7, with Autumn Glow and Tempted at $8.
"What Ka Ying Rising did the other day in Hong Kong was unbelievable,'' Dye said.
"The times he can run and how he quickens with these amazing sectionals, other horses just can't do that. He is awesome.''
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